China, NATO and Ukraine
Nearly 20 current and former aides and diplomats predicted that if Donald Trump were to win a second term, he would probably place loyalists in important positions at the Pentagon, State Department, and CIA, with their primary allegiance being to him. This would give him more freedom than he had during his first term to enact isolationist policies and whims within China, NATO and Ukrain.
According to the aides and diplomats, the outcome would allow Trump to drastically alter the American position on matters like trade with China, the war in Ukraine, and the federal agencies that carry out and occasionally restrict foreign policy.
Trump found it difficult to impose his occasionally impetuous and unpredictable vision on the national security establishment of the United States throughout his 2017–2021 term. Therefore he frequently expressed his displeasure to high-ranking officials who talked him out of, shelved, or slow-walked some of his plans. In his memoir, former defense secretary Mark Esper stated that he objected twice to Trump’s proposal to launch missile strikes on drug gangs in Mexico, the country with which the United States trades the most. The former head of state has however remained silent.
President Trump came to realize that personnel is policy. At the outset of his administration, there were a lot of people that were interested in implementing their own policies, not the president’s policies.
Stated Robert O’Brien, the president’s fourth and last national security advisor,
According to the current and former advisers, Trump would be able to carry out his foreign policy initiatives more quickly and effectively with more supporters in place than he did during his previous administration. Trump stated on the campaign trail this year that he would use US Special Forces to fight the cartels in Mexico, a move that is unlikely to receive approval from the Mexican government.
According to his advisors, Trump would not hesitate to reduce security funding to Europe and further limit business links with China if he were to win office again. Speaking with Trump frequently, O’Brien, who is still one of his top foreign policy advisors, stated that levying trade tariffs on NATO members who fail to meet their obligations to devote at least 2% of their GDP to defense would probably be one of the policies discussed during a second Trump term.
For this report, the Trump team declined to provide a statement. Four people who communicate with Trump say that, unlike in the run-up to his 2016 election, he has developed a stable of individuals with whom he routinely interacts, who have substantial experience in foreign policy and who he personally trusts.
Those advisors include former US Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell, Kash Patel, a former Trump administration member who had multiple positions in the defense and intelligence communities, and John Ratcliffe, the last Director of National Intelligence under Trump.
Unfortunately, requests for interviews were not answered by any of those persons. While these unofficial advisers have somewhat different specific beliefs, it is clearly noted that most of them have been outspoken supporters of Trump since he left office and have voiced worries that the United States is spending too much on NATO and Ukraine support.
OPTIONS
In the Republican primary for presidential candidacy, Trump enjoys a commanding lead. According to current and former advisers, the world will probably witness a much more confident and experienced Trump if he emerges as the Republican nominee and defeats Democratic President Joe Biden in November of next year.
Foreign capitals are rushing to find out what a second Trump term might entail due to that possibility. Beyond generalizations like concluding the conflict in Ukraine in a day, Trump has provided few indications about the type of foreign policy he might pursue the second time around.
According to eight European officials who spoke to the media, there are serious concerns that Trump will not continue to provide aid to Ukraine during its conflict with Russia and that he will not uphold Washington’s pledge to support NATO partners.
Due to the delicate nature of the subject, one Northern European ambassador in Washington stated that himself and his colleagues have continued to communicate with Trump advisers even after the former president departed the White House in 2021. However this information was provided by the diplomat on the condition of off record.
PULLOUT FROM NATO, BRAND NEW TRADE WAR
In the event that he is elected to a second term, Trump has promised to pressure Europeans to boost defense spending and to revoke China’s most favored trading nation status, which typically lowers trade barriers between nations.
For European diplomats attempting to be ready in Washington, it is especially important to know if Trump will maintain the crucial U.S. backing for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia as well as his ongoing commitment to NATO.
A official from one Baltic state stated that there are rumors ongoing that he wants to take the US away from NATO or withdraw from Europe this sounds worrying right? Quite a number of ambassadors consulted for this piece acknowledged that pressure from Trump during his first term did result in more defense spending, despite concerns about NATO’s survival.
Trump’s third national security advisor, John Bolton, who has since turned into a vociferous opponent of the outgoing president, revealed to the media that he thought Trump would pull out of NATO. For European countries that have relied on the alliance’s collective security guarantee for almost 75 years, such a choice would be tremulous.
That idea was downplayed by three additional former Trump administration officials, two of whom are still in communication with him. One of them stated that the domestic political backlash would probably not be worth it.
